Emmys 2023: Top 16 contenders for Lead Actor nominations

Paddy Considine all but secured an Emmy nomination with his wrenching monologue in House Of The Dragon’s eighth episode, which also marked the end of his time with the Game Of Thrones prequel. King Viserys may have had a relatively short run on screen, but Considine left an indelible mark with his HOTD performance. While there’s a chance he could get overlooked in favor of a more famous franchise or star (like Andor’s Diego Luna or 1923’s Harrison Ford), HOTD has enough Emmy goodwill because of its predecessor, and Considine himself has been delivering strong performances for more than two decades, so this might be his year.

Nothing screams Logan Roy energy more than Brian Cox, who appeared only in two full episodes of Succession’s fourth season, submitting himself in the Outstanding Lead Actor category instead of the Supporting race. But can you imagine slotting the Succession patriarch elsewhere? Of course you can’t. Although Cox is worthy of an Emmy anytime, it’s unlikely he’ll beat his fellow nominees (and castmates Jeremy Strong and Kieran Culkin) with such limited screen time.

Kieran Culkin moves up from the Supporting Actor race to the Lead Actor category for this year’s Emmys. It’s a well-earned upgrade since Succession’s final season focused heavily on Roman Roy in the post-Logan era, with Culkin giving a career-best performance. Culkin’s shift certainly lifts the chances of Matthew Macfadyen to win his second Supporting Actor Emmy, but will this Culkin be able edge out Cox and former winner Strong? The competition for this most perfect of shows is ... stiff.

It’s the last shot for Bob Odenkirk to win an Emmy for his fantastic Better Call Saul performance. The actor has been nominated for every season on the show—and will undoubtedly score another one for BCS’s final batch of episodes. He could pull off a W similar to Jon Hamm, who finally nabbed the trophy for Mad Men’s final season. BCS predecessor Breaking Bad also won big for its closing season, so that could bode well for Odenkirk’s chances. Fortunately, the voters tend to favor shows that have bid farewell. Unfortunately, BCS is also up against the final round of Succession.

Pedro Pascal is having a very good year. After starring in both The Last Of Us and season three of The Mandalorian in the past year, Pascal is most likely to get his first Emmy nomination for the former. (At least his face isn’t covered by a helmet in TLOU.) HBO’s video-game adaptation allowed Pascal to showcase his impressive range. And if he gets a nom, he’ll become only the second Latino (after Jimmy Smits) to be recognized in the Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series category. Pascal is also looking at a potential nod for Guest Actor in a Comedy, thanks to his fan-favorite Saturday Night Live hosting gig.

Succession’s number one boy is rightfully coming for his crown again. Jeremy Strong’s powerhouse performance as Kendall Roy already scored him an Outstanding Actor Emmy in 2020 and nothing will stop him from getting another nomination. But will he win the trophy? He’ll have to get past both Culkin and Cox. Or will split voting between three Succession actors allow someone else to walk away with the award? There are so many questions, people.

Andor, Disney+’s latest Star Wars hit, was much more beloved than The Mandalorian’s third season. And that could lead to Diego Luna (who’s pretty great on the show) scoring an Emmy nomination over someone like Paddy Considine. Still, since Andor’s coming back for more episodes and the HOTD star is done with his show one season in, voters might choose to celebrate the other guy. Like Pascal, if Luna gets this nod, he’ll be the second Latino actor after Jimmy Smits to get a nomination in this category.

Antony Starr has always been a scene-stealer in The Boys. And it’s a shame that he hasn’t already won for his performance. He deserves it for season three because of Homelander’s even-scarier-than-usual turn—that is, slowly embracing his outright, murderous narcissism in front of the public and gaining their love anyway. Starr is brilliant at showcasing his character’s menacing downfall. Hopefully, Emmy voters realize this, too, instead of leaving The Boys out in the cold.

Barry is not a comedy, per se, especially not in its grim final season, which rarely elicited laughs. But it does have a damn fine performance from Bill Hader (who also directed all eight episodes) that deserves recognition. Hader won the best actor comedy award for the first two seasons of Barry, but the show’s fourth season might be a little too bleak for Emmy voters. While a win might be unlikely, that doesn’t mean Hader can’t nab a nomination for taking Barry out on a high note.

If the Emmys knew what they were doing, Only Murders In The Building’s trio of stars would host the show. But don’t worry, voters will still recognize at least two of the three cast members in another way. Steve Martin is looking good to secure his second nomination for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy along with co-star Martin Short. (Both of them are also in the running for guest host nominations for their turn on SNL as well.)

Martin Short is gunning for his second nomination in this category ... and he’ll likely receive it, right alongside his Only Murders In The Building costar Steve Martin. Short and Martin are crushing it in OMITB as rookie sleuths/podcast hosts. Plus, both stars have been Hollywood mainstays for decades, and the Academy will want to honor that.

Will Emmy voters suddenly decided not to nominate Jason Sudeikis for Ted Lasso’s seemingly final season? That’s a hard no. The two-time winner is a shoo-in once more. If he wins, he’ll be the fifth actor to grab three consecutive trophies after Don Adams for Get Smart, Carroll O’Connor for All In The Family, Michael J. Fox for Family Ties, and Dick Van Dyke for The Dick Van Dyke Show. Ted Lasso is a cherished show, and despite mixed reviews for the show’s season, Sudeikis has a strong enough pull to win this race.

Jeremy Allen White is the strongest competitor to Sudeikis for top honors in this year’s race for Outstanding Actor in a Comedy Series. The Bear’s first season enjoyed the kind of word-of-mouth rise that powered Ted Lasso during that show’s initial run. And White’s poignant performance as Chef Carmy is more than worthy of a win. Plus, crucially, The Bear’s even better second season was released during the nomination period, which means the show is fresh in the minds of Television Academy members. White has already won a Golden Globe, a SAG award, and a Critics’ Choice award this year, which bodes well for his Emmy chances.

After scoring a surprise nomination last year, Nicholas Hoult could find his way into the top five again this year for his performance in The Great’s third season. Hulu hasn’t renewed the show yet, but it marked Hoult’s final turn as Peter III. (His lookalike Pugachev is alive and well, at least). Hoult is hilarious in a way that may connect with voters more than, say, Jason Segel in his grief comedy Shrinking, so he could make the cut again.

Jason Segel has been part of acclaimed TV shows (Freaks And Geeks, How I Met Your Mother) but hasn’t scored an Emmy nomination yet. That could change with Shrinking. He co-created the Apple TV+ comedy with Ted Lasso’s Bill Lawrence and Brett Goldstein, which means he has goodwill by association already.

It’s challenging to sustain and evolve a performance over four seasons when your character is an undying vampire. But Kayvan Novak makes it look easy in What We Do In The Shadows. Granted, the ensemble of this FX comedy (especially Matt Berry and Natasia Demetriou) also deserves honors, but in season four Novak toed the line between emotional vulnerability and dry hilarity as Nandor began craving a relationship. If there was any Emmy justice, voters would take WWDITS far more seriously than Nandor took his marriage to Marwa.