Emmy predictions 2023: Sizing up the contenders for Outstanding Drama Series

Andor set a new standard for Star Wars offerings on Disney+ with a fresh take on the familiar franchise. Led by the capable star Diego Luna and creator Tony Gilroy, the series broke new ground as a sci-fi show exploring political drama. And that’s really why it’s a strong contender for the Emmys. While not as popular as The Mandalorian, Andor is considered a prestige offering because of its quality and other notable wins like the Peabody. Brace yourself; this show is gunning for gold.

It’s the last chance for Peter Gould and Vince Gilligan’s Better Call Saul to finally nab a well-deserved and long-overdue Emmy. Because the show split its final season into two parts, episodes from the second half of season six are eligible to compete for Outstanding Drama. Better Call Saul’s final eps pulled out all the stops to garner fan and critical attention, with stellar performances from Bob Odenkirk and Rhea Seehorn, cameos by Bryan Cranston and Aaron Paul, and a conclusion that was both stunning and satisfying. While the show has scored plenty of nominations—it’s amassed 46 in all—it has zero wins. Academy voters could favor Saul just to end that drought, so it might just be the show to watch as we get closer to the ceremony.

The Crown has been a crowd favorite since it began, earning an Outstanding Drama nomination for each season, although it only has one win, in 2021, the year the show swept the entire category. Season five will almost certainly grab an Emmy nod as well, especially since it dug into the long-awaited topic of Prince Charles (Dominic West) and Princess Diana’s (Elizabeth Debicki) marriage. The chances that The Crown will win again are not as high, but the Academy will continue to save it a spot on the coveted nominations list.

Remember when Game Of Thrones met its bitter end, and everyone believed they were done with the franchise? Well, House Of The Dragon rewrote that notion. The prequel series—a running theme so far, huh?—became an immediate hit as it charted the Targaryen dynasty. GOT scored an Outstanding Drama nomination for each season, winning four of eight, so expect the Academy to continue the tradition of honoring this franchise. Bet on HOTD to score big in its debut, even if it doesn’t necessarily lead to gold for this category.

HBO is coming in strong this year with The Last Of Us, a mesmerizing, gripping TV experience led by Pedro Pascal and Bella Ramsey. With standout performances, memorable episodes like “Long, Long Time” and “Endure And Survive,” as well as ace cinematography, direction, scoring, and visual effects, The Last Of Us has a lot to like. Don’t let the fact that the show is a video game adaptation sway you. The series could be considered “niche” as opposed to, say, The White Lotus or The Crown, but TLOU has strong viewership ratings to boost its popularity. It’s likely securing a spot in the Outstanding Drama category.

It’s a good time to be a Star Wars fan. While not as beloved as Andor’s debut, the third season of The Mandalorian arrived in the nick of time for Emmys eligibility. It might not have been the show’s strongest year, but who doesn’t love a good Baby Yoda showing? The Mandalorian has enough popularity and buzz by now to garner voter attention. Plus, Pedro Pascal has had a notable year, with The Mandalorian and The Last Of Us under his belt, so it’s as good a time as any to give this show its nomination.

Let’s face it, Succession will probably emerge as the well-deserved winner of this category. It’s the show everybody was talking about all spring, for good reason, and its tremendous final season concluded just ahead of the May 31 eligibility date for Emmy nominations. Thanks to the terrific run of episodes, including Brian Cox’s goodbye as Logan Roy and the cast’s performances reacting to it, Succession figures to be the front-runner to take home this year’s Emmy for Outstanding Drama. It’s not a sure thing, of course—nothing is in a year with so many great shows—but Succession is certainly looking like the show to beat.

Mike White’s The White Lotus moves from Limited Series to Outstanding Drama at this year’s Emmys. That won’t hamper its chances, though, and the Italy-set second season will probably carve out its spot among this year’s top eight nominations. (It’s already won at the SAG Awards and the Golden Globes.) While the spotlight is constantly on the iconic Jennifer Coolidge, who made her (presumably) last appearance as Tanya McQuoid in season two, The White Lotus remains the consummate ensemble show. And fans responded again this season, dissecting each episode and character online each week. White is currently working on a much-anticipated third season.

The Old Man might not have as much name recognition among fans as some other shows on this list, but it’s a sleeper hit that’s garnered plenty of acclaim in the industry since its June 2022 premiere. Based on Thomas Perry’s novel, the absorbing drama is led by the beloved Jeff Bridges. The Old Man could score a nod mainly due to his performance. Bridges landed SAG, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes nominations for this role, and the Television Academy might want to honor him and his show as well.

There was a mixed response to Yellowjackets’ second season, which featured great performances but a somewhat meandering narrative. The series is in the same boat as The Mandalorian in that sense, where an Emmy nom or snub wouldn’t be a surprise. It helps that season two just finished and is still fresh in the minds of Emmy voters. While season two didn’t hit as hard as its debut run, Yellowjackets is admired enough for another potential shot.

Yellowstone has gone through its ups and downs in the past few months: It aired the first half of its fifth season, then series star Kevin Costner’s announced his departure, and then the show confirmed it would conclude its run later this year. While the Emmys have mostly disregarded the series, there’s no denying Yellowstone pulls in incredibly high viewership—far more than any of the other top contenders. Maybe this year, with the conclusion looming, the Academy will decide to pay attention. Hey, the Golden Globes already awarded the show in January, with Costner winning Best Actor, so you never know. Conversely, the TV Academy could pivot and honor 1923 because of Harrison Ford and Helen Mirren, but the chances aren’t as strong for that new spin-off.

Bad Sisters was a singular surprise. Sharon Horgan’s Apple TV+ series is a potent mix of drama, comedy, and suspense, and it has a strong following thanks to word of mouth and critical acclaim. So it could slowly be picking up momentum among voters. After Catastrophe and Pulling, Horgan has a well-established track record, and a Bad Sisters nomination might be all it takes to catapult her career. While the show is no Fleabag, don’t dismiss it, especially considering its BAFTA Best Drama win earlier this year.

If The Boys can do it once, it can do it again. Prime Video’s drama managed a nomination in 2021, and absolutely deserves recognition again for its third (and best) season so far. The tide is gradually shifting for superhero genre shows, which are getting mainstream Emmy consideration, thanks to WandaVision and Disney+’s Marvel fare changing the playbook. The Boys is better than all of those shows combined. Keep an eye out for it in this race and in other categories.

And now we’ve reached the shows the Academy will surely and sadly ignore. Let’s start with AMC’s Interview With The Vampire. There’s zero chance this sultry, sublime vampire drama will sneak in with everything else going on. It should, though. This Anne Rice adaptation presented a fresh, sexy take on the subject matter, with two excellent lead performances to boot. If there were any genre justice, Interview With The Vampire would make the Emmys cut.

Snowfall, a Damson Idris-led crime drama on FX, remained consistently great during its recently concluded six-year run, but The Academy has yet to bestow the show with any nominations, despite praise from critics and strong viewership. That extended snub by the Academy also raises questions about why stellar shows like Interview With The Vampire and Snowfall, both led by a diverse queer cast, don’t resonate with more voters.